Reconfiguration of the Russian bakery industry within the FMCG framework: methodology, constraint model and managerial implications

Abstract

The article examines the reconfiguration of the Russian bakery industry as a structural process changing product, corporate and managerial architecture within the FMCG framework. The purpose of the study is to clarify a methodological framework for analyzing an industry that simultaneously functions as a socially significant food sector and a low-margin fast-moving consumer goods market. The materials include the author's monograph, open statistical and industry sources, regulatory documents, corporate data and expert materials. The methodological framework is based on structural-functional analysis, risk matrix analysis, index-based assessment, scenario modeling, comparative country analysis and a maturity model for bakery enterprises. The article shows that the traditional volume-oriented management model loses stability under the simultaneous influence of price pressure, raw material volatility, bargaining asymmetry with retail chains, labor shortages and investment hunger. The category of managed survival is substantiated: the enterprise preserves operational continuity but does not generate resources for expanded reproduction. Managerial implications are proposed for the transition to portfolio category management, integration of the value chain and use of the Integrated Industry Reconfiguration Index as a tool for scenario diagnostics. The practical significance of the work lies in the ability to assess not only the current profitability of an enterprise but also its capacity for reproduction, modernization and a managed transition to more sustainable market segments.