Integration of international standards into the methodology for assessing investment risks in the bakery industry
Keywords:
investment risks, international standards, food industry, ISO 31000:2018, IEC 31010:2019, risk assessment, integration, globalizationAbstract
The globalization of the economy and integration processes in world trade necessitate the unification and standardization of methodological approaches to assessing investment risks in the bakery industry. The purpose of this study is to analyze the possibilities and prospects for the implementation of international standards in the practice of risk assessment of investing in the bakery industry. Materials and methods: The study is based on an integrated approach, including a systematic analysis of the regulatory framework, a comparative analysis of existing risk assessment methods, an expert survey of 40 specialists from 12 countries, a statistical analysis of data on investment projects in the bakery industry for the period 2015-2023. The use of mathematical modeling and scenario forecasting methods allowed us to develop an algorithm for integrating international standards ISO 31000:2018 and IEC 31010:2019 into the risk assessment process using the example of investment projects in the bakery industry. Results: It was found that the introduction of international standards contributes to an increase in transparency and reliability of investment risk assessment by 18-25%. A conceptual model of standards integration has been developed, which includes 5 stages: risk identification, analysis, assessment, processing, monitoring and revision. Testing the model on the example of 10 investment projects with a total cost of $ 500 million confirmed its effectiveness – the accuracy of risk assessment increased by 20%, and potential losses of investors decreased by $ 60 million. Methodological recommendations on the adaptation of international standards to the specifics of the bakery industry, taking into account technological, regulatory, market and country specifics, are proposed. The results obtained are of high practical importance and can be applied by investors, credit institutions, insurance companies, as well as regulators to improve investment policy in the bakery industry.
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