Methodology of risk modeling in the business of integrated corporate entities of the agro-industrial complex

Abstract

Relevance. Modern geopolitical challenges, unprecedented sanctions pressure cause an acute and immediate need to improve the efficiency of functioning of sectoral integrated corporate entities of the agro- industrial complex (AIC) through the application of continuous improvement practices and qualitative modeling of development strategy. The purpose of the prospective article is to show that incident risk modeling in the business of integrated corporate entities is one of the most promising business practices that allows, even without the use of digital support tools, to actualize the company's strategy. Results. The results obtained in the course of the study show that there are criteria for establishing the relationship between the parameters of incident-based modeling of business processes and the results depending on the consideration of the influence factors of the proposed methodology. It was found that this relationship can be considered as an integral part of almost all basic concepts and tools of business process management, that the proposed methodology is «through and through», «crossing» different areas of incident modeling in management, creating a universal check toolkit for forecasting, risk modeling in connection with the VRM process, which is especially relevant in modeling processes in integrated corporate entities. Conclusions. The conclusions made in the course of the research can be used to optimize change management when implementing incident risk modeling techniques in the practice of VRM, regardless of the structure and form of ownership of the organization