Modeling the spread of epizootics in agricultural ecosystems and its impact on food security
How to cite
Abstract
The spread of epizootics in agricultural ecosystems poses a serious threat to food security. The purpose of the study is to develop a comprehensive model of the spread of epizootics and to assess its impact on the baking industry in Russia. The tasks include the analysis of risk factors, the construction of predictive scenarios, and the identification of critical control points. An interdisciplinary approach was applied, combining methods of epidemiological analysis, mathematical modeling and expert assessments. The empirical base was compiled from official statistics, departmental reports, and field research in 12 regions of the Russian Federation (a sample of 58 farms). Methods of multidimensional statistics, GIS mapping, and qualitative content analysis were used for processing. The key determinants of the epizootic process have been identified: livestock density, biosafety level, pathogen circulation, and animal susceptibility. It has been established that the risks are maximum for regions of intensive animal husbandry (COE>0.8). It is predicted that epizootics can lead to a 25-40% shortage of grain resources for baking (Gulyukin, 2014). The results obtained develop the theory of epizootological monitoring in conditions of intensification of agricultural production. The practical significance is related to the possibility of preventive measures to reduce risks and ensure the stability of the grain balance. It is advisable to focus further research on expanding the predictive potential of the model.
Keywords
References
Горчаков Я.А., Бакулов И.А., Юрков Г.Г., Колбасов Д.В., Середа А.Д., Шишкин А.В., Иришин К.Н., Белянин С.А., Рахманов А.М., Караулов А.К., Лозовой Д.А. Африканская чума свиней. Покров: ВНИИВВиМ, 2014. 54 с.
Гулюкин М.И., Шабейкин А.А., Кузнецова Т.В. Анализ текущей эпизоотической ситуации по африканской чуме свиней // Ветеринария. 2014. № 8. С. 3-8.
Косолапов В.М., Трофимов И.А., Трофимова Л.С., Яковлева Е.П. Кормопроизводство, рациональное природопользование и агроэкология // Кормопроизводство. 2016. № 8. С. 3-8.
Макаров В.В. Управление эпизоотическим процессом: теория и практика // Ветеринарная патология. 2019. № 4(70). С. 39-51.
Макаров В.В. Эпизоотологический метод исследования. М.: Лань, 2009. 224 с.
Петрова О.Н., Коломиец С.Н. Современные аспекты эпидемиологического надзора и контроля гриппа птиц // Эпидемиология и вакцинопрофилактика. 2018. Т. 17. № 6 (103). С. 4-15.
Рахманов А.М. Оценка экономического ущерба от африканской чумы свиней // Ветеринария. 2013. № 12. С. 15-17.
Ma J., Xiao J., Liu H., Wang H. Spatio-temporal clustering analysis of African swine fever in China during 2018-2019 // Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2020. Vol. 183. рр. 105-123.
Smietanka K., Wozniakowski G. African swine fever epidemic in Poland (2014-2015) // Procedia food science. 2016. Vol. 7. рр. 168-171.
Smith P., Crabtree H., Bird N., Black H.I.J. Biochar and its potential to improve sustainability of agricultural systems // Renewable agriculture and food systems. 2021. Vol. 36. № 3. рр. 205-214.
Tripathi A., Tripathi D.K., Chauhan D.K., Kumar N., Singh G.S. Paradigms of climate change impacts on some major food sources of the world: A review on current knowledge and future prospects // Agriculture, ecosystems & environment. 2016. Vol. 216. рр. 356-373.
Vergne T., Paul M.C., Chaengprachak W., Durand B., Gilbert M., Dufour B., Roger F., Kasemsuwan S., Grosbois V. Zero-inflated models for identifying disease risk factors when case detection is imperfect: Application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand // Preventive veterinary medicine. 2014. Vol. 114. № 1. рр. 28-36.
Metrics
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.